UBS has revised its Brent crude forecast, projecting it to reach $110 per barrel by the end of 2026. This marks the bank's second upward revision this month, following a raise to $100 on October 6. The bank also lifted its 2027 price curve by $5 per barrel at each point, including forecasts of $95 for March, $90 for June, and $85 for September 2027.
Analysts attribute these expectations to supply concerns linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. UBS noted that forecasting remains difficult due to elevated uncertainty regarding the speed of recovery in Gulf oil production and global demand. Crude flows from the region have reportedly remained below prewar levels, maintaining pressure on global supply chains as volatility persists.
While nations recently initiated diplomatic discussions to explore a security framework, Oilprice.com reports that such efforts do not immediately resolve supply constraints. Even if regional tensions de-escalate, global markets continue to face risks that keep prices elevated, reinforcing the bank's cautious outlook on future energy sector price stabilization.