U.S. refineries worked at an unusually intense pace this summer. In an October 22 report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilization averaged more than 95% between May and September—the strongest performance for that period since 1998. The agency linked those operating rates to tight global supplies and improved margins for refined fuels, especially diesel.
The utilization figure needs a capacity comparison alongside it. EIA said total refinery output reached its highest level since 2019, even though utilization reached a much older benchmark. U.S. refining capacity has fallen 4% since 2019, meaning a larger share of the remaining fleet was working without producing a corresponding record in total output.
The seasonal pattern also matters. Summer operations generally emphasize gasoline demand, while distillate demand peaks in fall and winter. EIA reported that strong international demand for U.S. distillate exports helped drive this year's refinery runs. During the first three weeks of October, utilization eased from its summer level but still exceeded the seasonal average for 2021–2025. These are reported operating trends, rather than a forecast of where fuel prices will go next.